Юнктад отчет по инвестициям 2020

16 июня 2020 года Конференцией ООН по торговле и развитию (ЮНКТАД) опубликован Доклад о мировых инвестициях 2020. Согласно прогнозу экспертов глобальные потоки прямых иностранных инвестиций (ПИИ) в результате пандемии COVID-19 резко сократятся на 40% по сравнению с уровнем 2019 года (1,5 трлн долларов) – до менее чем 1 трлн долл. США. Т.о. падение будет гораздо более серьезным, нежели во время глобального финансового кризиса 2008 г.

Более того, в ЮНКТАД ожидают продолжения падения инвестиций на 5-10% в 2021 г. и постепенное возобновление положительных трендов лишь в 2022 г.

В докладе отмечается, что пандемия стала шоком для предложения, спроса и политики в области ПИИ. Пандемия замедлила реализацию существующих проектов, привела к пересмотру компаниями дальнейших инвестиционных планов и вызвала серьезнейшее падение выручки ТНК: 5000 крупнейших ТНК, на которые приходится основной объем ПИИ, потеряют в среднем 40% выручки.

В наихудшем положении окажутся развивающиеся страны, поскольку наиболее серьезно пострадают инвестиции, ориентированные на экспорт и связанные с сырьевыми товарами. Так, падение ПИИ в страны Латинской Америки может составить 50%, снижение ПИИ в странах Европы оценивается в 30-45%, Северной Америки – 20-35%, Африки 25-40%, развивающиеся страны Азии и страны с переходной экономикой – 30-45%.

В докладе отмечается, что 2019 г. стал успешным с точки зрения привлечения ПИИ для Российской Федерации: в ее экономику было инвестировано 31,7 млрд долл. США (+140% к 2018 г.). Что касается исходящих ПИИ из России, то в 2019 г. их объем уменьшился до 22,5 млрд долл. США (-37%). При этом Россия укрепляет позиции в качестве важного инвестора в области международного развития, став в 2019 г. 5-м по объему инвестором в экономику наименее развитых стран (6 млрд долл. США).

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Global foreign direct investment fell by 42% in 2020, outlook remains weak

UNCTAD says uncertainty about the COVID-19 pandemic’s evolution and the global investment policy environment will continue to affect FDI flows in 2021. For developing countries, the prospects for 2021 are a major concern.

Construction on Xayaburri Dam in Laos. Major infrastructure projects often require foreign direct investment / © Jittrapon

Global foreign direct investment (FDI) collapsed in 2020, falling 42% from $1.5 trillion in 2019 to an estimated $859 billion, according to an UNCTAD Investment Trends Monitor published on 24 January.

Such a low level was last seen in the 1990s and is more than 30% below the investment trough that followed the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.

Despite projections for the global economy to recover in 2021 – albeit hesitant and uneven – UNCTAD expects FDI flows to remain weak due to uncertainty over the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The organization had projected a 5-10% FDI slide in 2021 in last year’s World Investment Report.

“The effects of the pandemic on investment will linger,” said James Zhan, director of UNCTAD’s investment division. “Investors are likely to remain cautious in committing capital to new overseas productive assets.”

FDI inflows: global and by group of economies, 2007–2020 (billions of US dollars)

Developed countries hardest hit

According to the report, the decline in FDI was concentrated in developed countries, where flows plummeted by 69% to an estimated $229 billion.

Flows to North America declined by 46% to $166 billion, with cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) dropping by 43%. Announced greenfield investment projects also fell by 29% and project finance deals tumbled by 2%.

The United States recorded a 49% drop in FDI, falling to an estimated $134 billion. The decline took place in wholesale trade, financial services and manufacturing. Cross-border M&A sales of US assets to foreign investors fell by 41%, mostly in the primary sector.

On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, investment to Europe dried up. Flows fell by two-thirds to -$4 billion. In the United Kingdom, FDI fell to zero, and declines were recorded in other major recipients.

But Europe’s overall FDI performance masks a few regional bright spots. Sweden, for example, saw flows double from $12 billion to $29 billion. FDI to Spain also rose 52%, thanks to several acquisitions, such as private equities from the United States Cinven, KKR and Providence acquiring 86% of Masmovil.

Among other developed economies, flows to Australia fell (-46% to $22 billion) but increased for Israel (from $18 billion to $26 billion) and Japan (from $15 billion to $17 billion).

Although FDI flows to developing economies decreased by 12% to an estimated $616 billion, they accounted for 72% of global FDI – the highest share on record.

The fall was highly uneven across developing regions: -37% in Latin America and the Caribbean, -18% in Africa and -4% in developing countries in Asia. FDI to transition economies declined by 77% to $13 billion.

While developing countries in Asia weathered the storm well as a group, attracting an estimated $476 billion in FDI in 2020, flows to members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) contracted by 31% to $107 billion, due to a decline in investment to the largest recipients in the subregion.

In terms of individual nations, China was the world’s largest FDI recipient, with flows to the Asian giant rising by 4% to $163 billion. High-tech industries saw an increase of 11% in 2020, and cross-border M&As rose by 54%, mostly in ICT and pharmaceutical industries.

“A return to positive GDP growth (+2.3%) and the government’s targeted investment facilitation programme helped stabilize investment after the early lockdown,” the report says.

India, another major emerging economy, also recorded positive growth (13%), boosted by investments in the digital sector.

FDI inflows by region, 2019 and 2020 (billions of US dollars)

Weak outlook for 2021 except for technology and healthcare

The report says that data on an announcement basis – on M&As, greenfield investments and project finance – provides a mixed picture on forward trends and confirms the weak outlook for 2021.

“Greenfield project announcements in 2020, 35% lower than in 2019, do not bode well for new investment in industrial sectors in 2021,” the report says.

The decline in announced international project finance deals, important for investment in infrastructure, was more contained at -2%, but the uptick in the last part of the year was largely concentrated in developed countries.

“For developing countries, the prospects for 2021 are a major concern,” Mr. Zhan said. Although, FDI flows in developing economies appear relatively resilient in 2020, greenfield announcements fell by 46% and international project finance by 7%, according to the report.

“These investment types are crucial for productive capacity and infrastructure development and thus for sustainable recovery prospects,” Mr. Zhan added.

The report warns that “the far more limited capacity of developing countries to roll out economic support packages to stimulate investment in infrastructure will result in an asymmetric recovery of project-finance-driven FDI.”

UNCTAD expects any increases in global FDI flows in 2021 to come not from new investment in productive assets but from cross-border M&As, especially in technology and healthcare – two industries affected differently by the pandemic.

“Although their investment activity slowed down initially in 2020, they are now set to take advantage of low interest rates and increasing market values to acquire assets in overseas markets for expansion, as well as rivals and smaller innovative companies affected by the crisis.”

European companies are set to attract more than 60% of the technology deals in value terms, but several developing economies are also seeing an increase.

India and Turkey are attracting record numbers of deals in IT consulting and digital sectors, including e-commerce platforms, data processing services and digital payments.

Some 80% of the acquiring firms are based in developed economies, primarily in Europe, but a few multinational enterprises from developing countries are active buyers.

South African investors, for example, plan to acquire stakes in healthcare providers across Africa and Asia. And Indian IT companies have announced a 30% increase in acquisitions, targeting European and other markets for information technology services.

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World Investment Report 2020

Overview

FDI prospects for 2020–2021 are bleak

The COVID-19 crisis will cause a dramatic fall in FDI. Global FDI flows are forecast to decrease by up to 40 per cent in 2020, from their 2019 value of $1.54 trillion (figure 1). This would bring FDI below $1 trillion for the first time since 2005. FDI is projected to decrease by a further 5–10 per cent in 2021 and to initiate a recovery in 2022. A rebound, with FDI reverting to the pre-COVID underlying trend in 2022, is possible, but only at the upper bound of expectations.

This outlook is highly uncertain. It will depend on the duration of the global crisis and on the effectiveness of policy interventions to mitigate the economic effects of the pandemic. Geopolitical and financial risks and continuing trade tensions add to the uncertainty.

The projected fall is significantly worse than the one experienced in the years following the global financial crisis. At their lowest level ($1.2 trillion) then, in 2009, global FDI flows were some $300 billion higher than the bottom of the 2020 forecast.

The downturn caused by COVID-19 follows several years of negative or stagnant growth; as such it compounds a longer-term declining trend. The expected level of global FDI flows in 2021 would represent a 60 per cent decline since 2015, from $2 trillion to less than $900 billion.

The pandemic is a supply, demand, and policy shock for FDI. It has short-, medium-, and long-term effects (figure 2). The lockdown measures are slowing down existing investment projects. The prospect of a deep global recession will lead MNEs to re-assess new projects. Policy measures taken during the crisis
include new investment restrictions. Longer term, investment flows will slowly recover starting 2022, led by GVC restructuring for resilience, replenishment of capital stock and recovery of the global economy.

Over the two critical years of 2020 and 2021, the demand shock will be the biggest factor pushing down FDI. Although in general the trend in FDI reacts to changes in GDP growth with a delay, the exceptional combination of the lockdown measures and the demand shock will cause a much faster feedback loop on investment decisions. The demand contraction will hit FDI in the first half of 2020 and then fully unfold in the second half and 2021.

Early indicators confirm the immediacy of the impact. Both new greenfield investment project announcements and cross-border M&As dropped by more than 50 per cent in the first months of 2020.

MNE profit alerts are an early warning sign. The top 5’000 MNEs worldwide, which account for most of global FDI, have seen expected earnings for the year revised down by 40 per cent on average, with some industries plunging into losses. Lower profits will hurt reinvested earnings, which account for more than 50 per cent of FDI on average.

In terms of the severity of the earnings revisions, services industries directly affected by the lockdown are among the most severely hit, particularly travel and leisure sectors. Commodity-related industries suffer from the combined effect of the pandemic and plummeting oil prices. In manufacturing, some industries that are global value chain (GVC) intensive, such as automotive and textiles, were hit hard by supply chain disruptions. Because of their cyclical nature and global spread, they are vulnerable to both supply and demand shocks. Overall, industries that are projected to lose 30 per cent or more of earnings together account for almost 70 per cent of FDI projects.

The impact, although severe everywhere, varies by region. Developing economies are expected to see the biggest fall in FDI because they rely more on investment in GVC-intensive and extractive industries and because they are not able to put in place the same economic support measures as developed economies.

FDI increased marginally in 2019

In 2019, global FDI flows still increased marginally, by 3 per cent, to $1.54 trillion. Inward FDI flows to developed economies rose by 5 per cent, to $800 billion. It was concentrated in Europe (up 18 per cent to $429), but mainly because of jumps in a few economies, such as Ireland and Switzerland, after sharply negative inflows in 2018. However, FDI to some of the larger economies in the region declined. FDI in the United States, the largest recipient economy (figure 3), declined by 3 per cent to $246 billion.

FDI flows to developing economies declined marginally, by 2 per cent, to $685 billion. Since 2010, flows to developing economies have been relatively stable, hovering within a much narrower range than those to developed countries, at an average of $675 billion. The 2019 uptick in global FDI flows also hides differences between groups of economies clustered by income level. On average, FDI to all the higher and middle-income level groups was stable or marginally increased. Only least developed countries (LDCs) saw a fall in FDI flows, by 5.7 per cent.

Outward investment by MNEs based in developed economies increased significantly in 2019. Tax-reform driven repatriations of accumulated foreign earnings by United States MNEs that had caused large negative outflows in 2018 slowed down. MNEs from developed economies invested $917 billion abroad – a 72 per cent increase from the abnormally low 2018 values. Japan was again the largest overseas investor (figure 4), with a jump in outflows to $227 billion, with much of the increase accounted for by one large megadeal.

Tech MNEs further consolidate their position

In 2019, the internationalization rates of the top 100 MNEs remained flat. The average Transnationality Index (TNI) of the top 100 – the relative shares of their foreign assets, sales and employees – has plateaued in the last decade at about 65 per cent. This is caused in part by changes in the composition of the list, with new emerging-market entrants starting out at lower levels of internationalization. However, established top 100 MNEs may have reached a “glass ceiling” of transnationality that only a few can break through.

After reaching a peak of 15 companies in 2017, the number of tech and digital companies in the top 100 decreased to 13 in 2019. However, the share of tech and digital MNEs in total foreign sales and foreign assets of the top 100 still increased over the same period. The trend towards a stronger role for tech and digital firms in the top 100 thus continues. Large tech MNEs have been consolidating their position by buying successful start-ups. They are also pursuing vertical integration, engaging in the creation of content for their platforms or expanding into retailing and other services. The pandemic could reinforce the position of tech and digital companies with the growth of e-commerce solutions.

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Юнктад отчет по инвестициям 2020